Monthly Archives: February 2016

The Collapse of Oil Prices: Threat or Chance?

The prolonged slide in oil prices to early 2000s levels has, in our view, profound implications for the economic outlook and financial markets. In a recent Perspectives piece, I’ve addressed some of the key questions that the oil weakness has raised, … Continue reading

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Brexit: Initial Thoughts and Possible Implications

There has been a lot of news on the Brexit debate in recent days. UK Prime Minister David Cameron obtained a new draft for the EU deal at last week’s summit in Brussels, and set a date for the referendum … Continue reading

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Three Currency Market Themes for 2016: #3 Emerging Markets Deleveraging

One of the unintended consequences of G-4 QE policies has been the development of EM macro imbalances. These imbalances have manifested themselves in rising current account deficits, rising inflation, robust credit growth and a rapid buildup of USD-denominated debt. During … Continue reading

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Three Currency Market Themes for 2016: #2 Renminbi Depreciation

On December 11, 2015, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a new renminbi (RMB) exchange rate index that sent a clearer message about a significant shift in the way the PBoC manages its exchange rate. The key reason for … Continue reading

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Three Currency Market Themes for 2016: #1 Divergence in Monetary Policies

As we predicted in January of 2015, the U.S. dollar (USD) experienced a bull market last year. That significant rally was surprisingly broad. In my recent Pioneer Blue Paper, U.S. Dollar Bull Market: Moving into Overshoot Territory in 2016, we examine … Continue reading

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