Did Fears of the Fed Spark Bond Market Selloff?

Last week in the capital markets: Bonds sold off globally in the week before the Fed meeting.

It was a quiet week for economic news, and the geopolitical front was relatively quiet (less fighting but more sanctions in Europe, moving toward a bigger effort against ISIS) but fears that the Fed is behind the curve seemed to be the ones that led investors and traders to act last week. Continue reading

As the Economy Improves, the Fed Recalibrates its Message

As the economy and labor market improve, quantitative easing (QE) is wound down and the first rate hike draws nearer, the language of the Fed evolves accordingly.  Both the minutes of the June FOMC meeting and the remarks of Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole were incrementally less dovish than earlier language.  The pace of these changes suggests that the Fed is comfortable “the ball is in the fairway”…the likelihood of a surprise policy shift is low. Continue reading

U.S. Forecast Update: Growth, Inflation and Central Bank Policy

Pioneer’s Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, Monica Defend, along with U.S. and Latin America Global Asset Allocation Research Economist, Annalisa Usardi, recently released an update on the U.S. economy. The update was based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) release of the third and final estimates 1Q14 gross domestic product (GDP), which came in lower than expected. The forecast update focuses on three areas: growth, inflation and central bank policy. Below are some highlights from their report. To read the full report, click here. Continue reading

A Eurozone Pick-Up? Three Key Insights

The Eurozone economy is showing more convincing signs of a pick-up that is more broad based and robust than anticipated. Obviously, a wide difference in conditions exists between European countries and fragmentation in their financial conditions still exist, but these are (slowly) receding. We recently examined trends in three elements of Eurozone health: growth, inflation and the European Central Bank.

Growth: Improving Momentum
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Where Should Interest Rates Really Be? Applying the Taylor Rule to the World’s Central Banks.

The Taylor Rule is a formula widely used by central banks to determine how interest rates should change based on inflation, output, economic conditions and other factors. Since the start of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, the world’s “G4” central banks – U.S., Japan, UK, and Europe have injected over $5 trillion of liquidity into the global economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve began “tapering” in December 2013, starting the process of exiting its quantitative easing program designed to keep rates low, stimulate borrowing and promote investing. Amidst signs that the global economic recovery is broadening and becoming more sustainable, market attention has begun to shift to whether less overall monetary accommodation is needed.

We applied the Taylor Rule to test the monetary policy stance of the G-4 central banks – testing each of them individually and making the results available below and conclude that policy for all but the Eurozone is too accommodative and that central bankers may have to respond more swiftly than many expect. Continue reading

Is More ECB Action Likely if Inflation Worsens?

During the press conference that followed the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting held in Frankfurt on February 6, 2014, ECB President Mario Draghi commented on the current low level of inflation in the Eurozone. These are some of the highlights from his discussion: Continue reading

Debt Limit Extended, Fed Policy in the Wings – What to Expect from the Markets

Last night Congress reached an agreement to raise the debt limit and end the 16-day shutdown. After all the acrimony and tense negotiations, the deal passed by a comfortable margin with 81-18 vote in the Senate and 285-144 in the House.

Key details of the deal:

  • The government reopens on October 17, 2013.
  • Congress will provide spending authority through January 15, 2014 at the same spending level in effect prior to the shutdown.
  • The debt ceiling is extended until February 7, 2014.
  • Reality check: the real deadline will be sometime in mid-March, according to Goldman Sachs. The agreement allows the U.S. Treasury to utilize bookkeeping strategies known as “extraordinary measures” once the debt limit is breached on February 7th. Continue reading
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