Posted on September 25, 2014 by Ken Taubes
The Federal Reserve Board’s policy-making committee convened on September 16-17 to discuss winding down its stimulus program. Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, explained the results of the meeting in a news conference on September 17.
Is the Fed Being Too Accomodative?
If you look at the indicators the Fed has used in the past – the Taylor Rule for one, but there are others – they suggest the Fed is too easy and too accommodative. In fact, Ms. Yellen in her press conference acknowledged that the Fed is pursuing an easier policy than the common indicators would suggest. That doesn’t change anything they’ve done, but nonetheless, the declining unemployment rate, for example, and the increased pace of growth, are beginning to suggest rates are too low.
Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Ken Taubes, Macroeconomics | Tagged: Fed policy, Fed Strategy, Janet Yellen, Ken Taubes | Leave a comment »
Posted on September 8, 2014 by Sam Wardwell
Concerns about the Ukraine and Islamic State remained high last week, but diminished at week-end on news of a cease-fire in Ukraine and NATO resolve to address the Islamic State. The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets (bullishly), and U.S. economic news was biased to the positive.
Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, GDP, Macroeconomics, Sam Wardwell, U.S. Dollar | Tagged: Capital Markets, currencies, ECB, Europe, Fed policy, Sam Wardwell, Ukraine | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 25, 2014 by Sam Wardwell
As the economy and labor market improve, quantitative easing (QE) is wound down and the first rate hike draws nearer, the language of the Fed evolves accordingly. Both the minutes of the June FOMC meeting and the remarks of Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole were incrementally less dovish than earlier language. The pace of these changes suggests that the Fed is comfortable “the ball is in the fairway”…the likelihood of a surprise policy shift is low. Continue reading
Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Sam Wardwell, U.S. Dollar, United States | Tagged: Bonds, Capital Markets, Fed policy, Fed tapering, inflation, Interest rates, QE Tapering, the Fed, Unemployment | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 24, 2014 by Giordano Lombardo
Pioneer’s Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, Monica Defend, along with U.S. and Latin America Global Asset Allocation Research Economist, Annalisa Usardi, recently released an update on the U.S. economy. The update was based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) release of the third and final estimates 1Q14 gross domestic product (GDP), which came in lower than expected. The forecast update focuses on three areas: growth, inflation and central bank policy. Below are some highlights from their report. To read the full report, click here. Continue reading
Filed under: GDP, Giordano Lombardo, Inflation, Macroeconomics, United States | Tagged: Fed policy, inflation, Interest rates, QE Tapering, US GDP | Leave a comment »
Posted on April 25, 2014 by Ken Taubes
For more than a year the Federal Reserve Board has cited inflation below its targeted 2% level as one justification for maintaining its extraordinarily accommodative monetary stance. As of February, the core inflation rate was 1.1%, based on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation series, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But there is good reason to question whether the 2% target justifies current policy. Continue reading
Filed under: Inflation, Ken Taubes, Macroeconomics, United States | Tagged: asset prices, disinflation, education sector, Fed policy, homeownership rate, Inlfation, Ken Taubes, medical sector, price weakness, transportation sector, US Homeowner Equity | Leave a comment »
Posted on February 24, 2014 by Giordano Lombardo
As we begin 2014, economies in developed countries are gathering momentum and central banks are retaining accommodative monetary policies, which extend support for risky assets. U.S. corporate capital (CAPEX) expenditure is being revived, marking an improvement necessary for upgrading the overall economic growth. In this respect, recent disappointing figures on the job market seem more of a transient occurrence than a trend reversal. Nevertheless, key macro figures are still under close watch amid concerns that the economy is actually getting stronger and can withstand the gradual withdrawal of the exceptional monetary stimulus. Continue reading
Filed under: Europe, Giordano Lombardo, Macroeconomics, United States | Tagged: Central Banks, deflation, ECB, emerging markets, Fed Action, Fed policy, Fed tapering, GDP, Giordano Lombardo, global economy, inflation, monetary policy, QE, QE Tapering, tapering, the Fed | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 31, 2014 by Sam Wardwell
The current selloff in Emerging Markets (EM) may be peripherally related to Federal Reserve (Fed) tapering, but any linkage is more psychological than mechanical. In general, Fed tapering is expected to result in a renormalizing of bond yields (i.e. the 10-year Treasury working its way back to 3.5% or a little higher this year), but the Fed is still easing – just a little less aggressively – and they are not tightening. Continue reading
Filed under: GDP, Macroeconomics, Sam Wardwell, Uncategorized, United States | Tagged: emerging markets, Fed Action, Fed policy, Fed tapering, QE, QE Tapering, Sam Wardwell, tapering, the Fed | Leave a comment »