The Dollar Jumped and Stocks Rallied Last Week … What were The Triggers?

Concerns about the Ukraine and Islamic State remained high last week, but diminished at week-end on news of a cease-fire in Ukraine and NATO resolve to address the Islamic State. The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets (bullishly), and U.S. economic news was biased to the positive.

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Japanese Economic Update: A Meaningful Recovery?

Monica Defend, Pioneer’s Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, and Alessia Berardi, Japanese Global Asset Allocation Research Economist recently released an update on the Japanese economy. Below are some of the highlights. For the full report, click here. Continue reading

Summer Ends Quietly…with a Market-Moving Speech

Last week in the capital markets: A Quiet Last Week of August.  Economic news again suggested the U.S. economy is fine, while Asia and Europe are facing headwinds.  Mario Draghi’s dovish-sounding speech at Jackson Hole a week ago was probably more market-moving than anything that happened last week. Continue reading

Emerging Markets Economic Update: Growth, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Pioneer’s Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, Monica Defend, along with U.S. and Latin America Global Asset Allocation Research Economist, Annalisa Usardi, recently released an economic update on the Emerging Markets. Highlights from their report surrounding Latin America, specifically Brazil and Mexico, are below. To read the full report, click here. Continue reading

As the Economy Improves, the Fed Recalibrates its Message

As the economy and labor market improve, quantitative easing (QE) is wound down and the first rate hike draws nearer, the language of the Fed evolves accordingly.  Both the minutes of the June FOMC meeting and the remarks of Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole were incrementally less dovish than earlier language.  The pace of these changes suggests that the Fed is comfortable “the ball is in the fairway”…the likelihood of a surprise policy shift is low. Continue reading

Signs Point to Continued Slow Growth Ahead

Last week’s data provided a mixed picture of the economy. Businesses produced more, but demand growth was soft. That combination suggests slower future economic growth, not acceleration (but still growth, not recession). Some points to note:

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up from 95.0 to 95.7.
  • The Empire State (NY Fed) Index slipped, but remains strong at 14.7.
  • Industrial production rose, led by auto production, and capacity utilization ticked up slightly as well.
  • Business inventories rose modestly…slightly faster than sales.
  • Consumer confidence slipped, despite good job market data…too many war/conflict/disease stories in the paper? That said, retail sales managed a 0.2% increase month over month (m/m) – still below expectations.
  • Mortgage applications ticked down week over week (w/w); the generic rate dropped to 4.24%.
  • Inflation remains comfortably below trigger levels for Fed tightening

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UK Forecast Update: Growth, Inflation and Monetary Policy

Pioneer’s Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, Monica Defend, along with Europe and EMEA Global Asset Allocation Research Senior Economist, Andrea Brasili, recently released an update on the UK economy. The update was based on the 2Q14 preliminary results for gross domestic product (GDP), which came in higher than expected. They expect growth above 3%, higher inflation in 2015, and a gradual shift in monetary policy towards higher rates. Highlights from their report are below. To read the full report, click here. Continue reading

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