Why U.S. Interest Rates Will Rise

Posted on April 18, 2013 by Paresh Upadhyaya

Central banks have taken numerous measures to inject liquidity into their domestic economies. This has helped boost risk appetite and investor sentiment.

  • The European Central Bank’s stabilization programs have successfully reduced financial market and sovereign tail risk for banks.
  • Global growth troughed in Q2 2012, but has been on an upward trend since.
  • Market concerns over the U.S. debt situation are easing as the U.S. economy proved surprisingly resilient to many uncertainties.

As a result, investors are concerned that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have bottomed for the U.S. 10-year Treasury and will surge, raising fears of a bond bear market along the lines of the Great Bond Bear Market of 1994. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mutual Fund Industry, Paresh Upadhyaya, Political, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

What’s Next for U.S. and European Markets?

Posted on April 4, 2013 by Mike Temple

I was asked recently to provide some color around the state of global fixed income markets as we close out the first quarter of 2013. Of course, one of the more watched situations in the global markets has been Cyprus’s banking crisis. I won’t go into too much depth on the subject here, as my colleague, Cosimo Marasciulo, has recently provided a comprehensive analysis.

(more…)

Filed under: Europe, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mike Temple, Political | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

How Big a Problem will the Sequester be for the U.S. Economy?

Posted on March 5, 2013 by Sam Wardwell

Having dodged the fiscal cliff and postponed the debt ceiling deadline, Congress decided to let the spending sequesters happen. Will the result be to throw the economy into recession or cause an economic catastrophe? We don’t think so, and neither does Congress. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Political, Sam Wardwell | Leave a Comment »

Will Resolution of the Fiscal Cliff Squelch Consumption?

Posted on January 24, 2013 by Paresh Upadhyaya

The U.S. averted the Fiscal Cliff with passage of the “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012” on December 31. Economists think resolution of the Fiscal Cliff will lead to a fiscal drag of 1% on GDP and adversely affect the mainstay of the economy: the American Consumer.

We’re not convinced this will happen and believe tax increases overstate the related negative consumption impacts. While we expect some weakness in consumption, it is likely to be transitory and confined in the first half of 2013, before recovering above-trend in the second half. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Political | Leave a Comment »

Quick Takes on the Investing Year Ahead

Posted on January 22, 2013 by Sam Wardwell

We covered a lot of market and investment topics at Pioneer’s National Sales and Marketing Meeting last week. Here are some summarizing notes on a few that were popular:

  • GDP Growth for the U.S.
  • Expectations for rates: Fed Funds Rate and the 10-year Treasury
  • EM equities favored over U.S. Equities?
  • Things that keep us up at night (outside of the debt ceiling, Europe, and Middle East tension) (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Europe, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Political | Leave a Comment »

Taking Stock of the Greek Issue

Posted on January 18, 2013 by Giordano Lombardo

After a lot of discussion about imposing strict provisions to obtain new funds, the EU disbursed another loan for Greece with a few strings attached. I spoke with Monica Defend, Pioneer’s Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, to get her opinion on some questions asked.

(more…)

Filed under: Europe, Giordano Lombardo, Macroeconomics, Political | Leave a Comment »

The Deal is Done – Observations on the Cliff, the Ceiling and Your Investments

Posted on January 2, 2013 by Sam Wardwell

I’ve been saying that December 31 was a media deadline, not a real deadline for a fiscal cliff resolution, since Congress could act retroactively. However, I guess I underestimated the extent to which politicians dance to the media’s tune, instead of Wall Street’s or Main Street’s. Given how little turnover there was in Congress, it seemed there was little real pressure to get a deal done in the lame duck session (which ended last night) rather than in the new Congress. But, again, a deal was done – and, like most such negotiations, was done only at what the negotiators perceived to be the very last instant.

(more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Political, Sam Wardwell | Leave a Comment »

Italy: The Impending Elections

Posted on December 20, 2012 by Giordano Lombardo

As Italy’s technocratic party prepares to exit , I asked Cosimo Marasciulo, Pioneer’s Head of European Government Bonds and Foreign Exchange, for his thoughts on pending elections in 2013 and how they might affect investors. I’ll share a few of those thoughts with you here:

(more…)

Filed under: Europe, Giordano Lombardo, Macroeconomics, Political | Leave a Comment »

Rescuing the Bond Deer from the Bond Bear

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Mike Temple

It’s the season to talk about the man who delivers presents. No, not Santa Claus, but Fed Chairman Bernanke who has been delivering the green stuff for the past four years – in a helicopter, not a sleigh… My last installment introduced the Fixed Income Bond Deer – the investor caught in the headlights confused about what to do. This week we contemplate the following: should “Bond Deer” be grateful for the green stuff or frightened by the possibility that it is fueling the next bond “bear” market? The answer: it depends on how long this experiment continues. (more…)

Filed under: Contributors, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mike Temple, Political | Leave a Comment »

Will Rates Rise if Ben Bernanke is Replaced?

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Sam Wardwell

I was recently asked, “What will be the impact if Bernanke is replaced? Could a new Fed Chairman increase rates sooner than expected and put major pressure on the fixed income market?” My response: I see three scenarios under which rates might rise significantly:

  1. Fed tightening…highly unlikely in the next year
  2. U.S. investor sentiment shift…most likely
  3. Global loss of confidence…least likely, most damaging (more…)

Filed under: Contributors, Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mutual Fund Industry, Political, Sam Wardwell | Leave a Comment »

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