Why U.S. Interest Rates Will Rise

Posted on April 18, 2013 by Paresh Upadhyaya

Central banks have taken numerous measures to inject liquidity into their domestic economies. This has helped boost risk appetite and investor sentiment.

  • The European Central Bank’s stabilization programs have successfully reduced financial market and sovereign tail risk for banks.
  • Global growth troughed in Q2 2012, but has been on an upward trend since.
  • Market concerns over the U.S. debt situation are easing as the U.S. economy proved surprisingly resilient to many uncertainties.

As a result, investors are concerned that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have bottomed for the U.S. 10-year Treasury and will surge, raising fears of a bond bear market along the lines of the Great Bond Bear Market of 1994. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mutual Fund Industry, Paresh Upadhyaya, Political, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Will Rates Rise if Ben Bernanke is Replaced?

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Sam Wardwell

I was recently asked, “What will be the impact if Bernanke is replaced? Could a new Fed Chairman increase rates sooner than expected and put major pressure on the fixed income market?” My response: I see three scenarios under which rates might rise significantly:

  1. Fed tightening…highly unlikely in the next year
  2. U.S. investor sentiment shift…most likely
  3. Global loss of confidence…least likely, most damaging (more…)

Filed under: Contributors, Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mutual Fund Industry, Political, Sam Wardwell | Leave a Comment »

“Bond Deer” in the Headlights – The Fixed Income Investor

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Mike Temple

An insightful client exclaimed to me last week, after I had enumerated the many risks facing bond market investors, that he felt like a deer in the headlights. “Bear” with me for a paragraph or two while I elaborate. . . Imagine you’re a deer on a lonely stretch of highway late at night. To either side are high walls of rock (the psychologically difficult-to-scale barriers of asset allocation into equities). Behind is the long uphill that bonds have coasted on (with some bumps) for the past 30+ years. In front, coming closer every second is a set of large, bright headlights. Scary, huh? (more…)

Filed under: Contributors, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mike Temple, Mutual Fund Industry, Political, Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

You can’t play chess against a madman. So it goes with financial markets.

Posted on August 2, 2012 by Joe Kringdon

I’m feeling bullish on the markets. There, I said it. Despite the fact that (according to a recent Barron’s poll) 21% of financial advisors are not and, despite the fact that my formative years – with my bell-bottom pants and hankering for disco – were shaped by the depths of the 1970s bear market. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Joe Kringdon, Mutual Fund Industry | Leave a Comment »

Nervous about the Markets? A Little Logic May Help You Enjoy the Ride.

Posted on March 15, 2012 by Joe Kringdon

We’ve all heard analogies likening the stock market to a roller coaster – an experience fraught with slow climbs, speedy drops and all of the emotions that go along with the ride. But I recently attended an industry meeting where one of the speakers brought an interesting perspective to this analogy: She brought logic into the discussion.

(more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Joe Kringdon, Mutual Fund Industry | Leave a Comment »

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