When Will the U.S. Economy Stop Slowing Down and Start Speeding Up?

Posted on May 21, 2013 by Marco Pirondini

As earnings data from companies comes trickling in, it all but confirms a slowdown in the second quarter.

The U.S. economy is moving slowly at a 2.5% growth rate, but doing better than other economies around the developed world. The U.S. has been able to produce this growth in a period when the fiscal stimulus is diminishing and we’ve seen a steep increase in taxes in the first part of 2013. The real positive news, as far as the U.S. economy is concerned, is that the real estate market continues to improve. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Europe, Macroeconomics, Marco Pirondini | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Redrawing the Investment Map

Posted on May 21, 2013 by Giordano Lombardo

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has evolved in ways that are unpredictable and often unsettling for investors. Our 2013 Colloquia Series Forum, titled “Redrawing the Map: New Risk, New Reward,” was held in April in Beijing, China and brought investment experts from Pioneer Investments together with leaders from central banks, sovereign wealth funds and academic communities to discuss these issues and their implications for investments. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Europe, Giordano Lombardo, Macroeconomics, Political | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Are Recent Market Highs Merely Rhymes, or Something More?

Posted on May 7, 2013 by Joe Kringdon

My family and I went out to dinner this past summer on a Sunday night during my vacation – five adults at a ‘farm-to-table’ restaurant in Maine. As you might expect, we received a somewhat healthy bill. Three nights later, the same group of five went out to dinner at a nouveaux Italian restaurant. When I looked at the bill, something struck me as odd. Later, when I set the receipts from those two very different restaurants side by side, I had to rub my eyes – they were exactly the same! The same five people on two different nights at two different restaurants with two different menus managed to produce the same exact amount on the bills! What were the chances of that – and what did it mean?

(more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Joe Kringdon | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Why Did Gold Prices Fall So Sharply?

Posted on May 6, 2013 by Paresh Upadhyaya

April’s sharp decline in gold got people’s attention. Plunging from $1,561 to $1,347/oz on April 12 and 15, it was a staggering decline of 13.7% the biggest 2-day drop since 1983. Is anything significant going on behind the scenes? We believe this price action is not a new phenomenon for gold, but a continuation of a much bigger trend that has been in place since the third quarter of 2011. (more…)

Filed under: Contributors, Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Paresh Upadhyaya | Leave a Comment »

The Sustainability of U.S. Interest Rates Rising

Posted on April 25, 2013 by Paresh Upadhyaya

Investors are growing concerned, with good reason, we think, that yields have bottomed for the 10-year Treasury and will surge as the economy gains strength. Prices, which move inversely to yields, would fall, and the question is whether rising rates in 2013 could trigger a bond bear market along the lines of the Great Bond Bear Market of 1994. We don’t think so. (more…)

Filed under: Contributors, Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Paresh Upadhyaya | Leave a Comment »

Why U.S. Interest Rates Will Rise

Posted on April 18, 2013 by Paresh Upadhyaya

Central banks have taken numerous measures to inject liquidity into their domestic economies. This has helped boost risk appetite and investor sentiment.

  • The European Central Bank’s stabilization programs have successfully reduced financial market and sovereign tail risk for banks.
  • Global growth troughed in Q2 2012, but has been on an upward trend since.
  • Market concerns over the U.S. debt situation are easing as the U.S. economy proved surprisingly resilient to many uncertainties.

As a result, investors are concerned that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have bottomed for the U.S. 10-year Treasury and will surge, raising fears of a bond bear market along the lines of the Great Bond Bear Market of 1994. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mutual Fund Industry, Paresh Upadhyaya, Political, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Investing for Income? “Safe” Bets Can be Surprisingly Risky.

Posted on April 9, 2013 by Joe Kringdon

Recently I read that the latest Powerball winner would walk away with about $150 million after taxes! Wow!

The recent, seemingly terminal decline in interest rates has been difficult on many investors who have been planning their income needs for the future. Interestingly enough, a wise presenter at a meeting I attended in January* addressed this very point with a ‘wow’ factor of quite a different nature.

(more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Joe Kringdon | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Three Trends Will Shake American Businesses Out Of Paralysis

Posted on March 6, 2013 by Mike Temple

On-shoring, energy infrastructure reinvestment and plant replacement are three trends in the making that will shake American business out of paralysis. In the last “Bond Deer in the Headlights,” I outlined the “Monetary Abolitionists” assertion that out-of-control government spending, made acceptable by historically low interest rates, was responsible for corporate paralysis in investing and hiring.

That camp also believes that as a result we are likely heading for credit crash, and shouldn’t be worried about the possibility of a rising-interest-rate environment. In terms of government spending, my conclusion was that while it’s too early to turn off the fiscal spigot, a plan to deal with government entitlements needs to be mapped out now.  In this final installment, I look more closely at the assertion that corporate America has been paralyzed by political uncertainty. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Mike Temple | Leave a Comment »

How Big a Problem will the Sequester be for the U.S. Economy?

Posted on March 5, 2013 by Sam Wardwell

Having dodged the fiscal cliff and postponed the debt ceiling deadline, Congress decided to let the spending sequesters happen. Will the result be to throw the economy into recession or cause an economic catastrophe? We don’t think so, and neither does Congress. (more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Fixed Income Market Insights, Macroeconomics, Political, Sam Wardwell | Leave a Comment »

Ignore the Noise. Equities Offer Income Potential.

Posted on February 27, 2013 by Joe Kringdon

Oh boy, are we a mercurial bunch!

Back in the summer I went on record that, amid the malaise, I was bullish on the market. As it turns out, equity market indices, by and large, printed positive returns for 2012. The S&P 500 Index was up 16% or so for the year. As of January 31, we have continued the positive upward momentum.

I don’t write these lines to gloat or to tap out a victory dance. As someone once told me, they don’t hand out trophies at half-time. Or perhaps more to the point, it’s harmful to exit a moving vehicle before coming to a complete stop. I share this because, while investors are warming to the opportunities in equities, the crowd noise from observers and the media pundits suggests that they believe the game is nearly over, and the journey will come to an abrupt end. Wow – the ‘haters’ are out in force!

(more…)

Filed under: Equity Market Insights, Joe Kringdon | Leave a Comment »

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