My family and I went out to dinner this past summer on a Sunday night during my vacation – five adults at a ‘farm-to-table’ restaurant in Maine. As you might expect, we received a somewhat healthy bill. Three nights later, the same group of five went out to dinner at a nouveaux Italian restaurant. When I looked at the bill, something struck me as odd. Later, when I set the receipts from those two very different restaurants side by side, I had to rub my eyes – they were exactly the same! The same five people on two different nights at two different restaurants with two different menus managed to produce the same exact amount on the bills! What were the chances of that – and what did it mean?
April’s sharp decline in gold got people’s attention. Plunging from $1,561 to $1,347/oz on April 12 and 15, it was a staggering decline of 13.7% the biggest 2-day drop since 1983. Is anything significant going on behind the scenes? We believe this price action is not a new phenomenon for gold, but a continuation of a much bigger trend that has been in place since the third quarter of 2011. Read more »
Investors are growing concerned, with good reason, we think, that yields have bottomed for the 10-year Treasury and will surge as the economy gains strength. Prices, which move inversely to yields, would fall, and the question is whether rising rates in 2013 could trigger a bond bear market along the lines of the Great Bond Bear Market of 1994. We don’t think so. Read more »
Central banks have taken numerous measures to inject liquidity into their domestic economies. This has helped boost risk appetite and investor sentiment.
- The European Central Bank’s stabilization programs have successfully reduced financial market and sovereign tail risk for banks.
- Global growth troughed in Q2 2012, but has been on an upward trend since.
- Market concerns over the U.S. debt situation are easing as the U.S. economy proved surprisingly resilient to many uncertainties.
As a result, investors are concerned that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have bottomed for the U.S. 10-year Treasury and will surge, raising fears of a bond bear market along the lines of the Great Bond Bear Market of 1994. Read more »
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We had a little flush of activity in the first quarter, which we believe will lead to much better GDP – potentially well over 3% – than people anticipated in the beginning of the year. We look at this activity as a little bit of a catch-up, for a couple of reasons: Read more »
Recently I read that the latest Powerball winner would walk away with about $150 million after taxes! Wow!
The recent, seemingly terminal decline in interest rates has been difficult on many investors who have been planning their income needs for the future. Interestingly enough, a wise presenter at a meeting I attended in January* addressed this very point with a ‘wow’ factor of quite a different nature.
I was asked recently to provide some color around the state of global fixed income markets as we close out the first quarter of 2013. Of course, one of the more watched situations in the global markets has been Cyprus’s banking crisis. I won’t go into too much depth on the subject here, as my colleague, Cosimo Marasciulo, has recently provided a comprehensive analysis.